I was amazed while reading some statistics that 63% of Americans are concerned about the swine flu but over 60% say they haven’t received the vaccine and do not plan to get it(ABC NEWS POLL). That means 23 % of the Americans are worried about their health being jeopardized by a pandemic disease yet they don’t plan to be bothered to get a vaccine that costs $18 to prevent that disease. Another 37% are not concerned about a disease that the best and brightest scientists have identified as a potential pandemic and threat to a significant number of Americans (according the CDC, to date 50 million Americans have contracted the swine flu virus and nearly 10,000 have died).
Since we deal with independent retailers, I obviously thought about the huge implications that statistic has for those retailers to whom we provide merchandise planning and OTB budgets for each month. Understanding this new retail environment is truly an enigma wrapped in a conundrum as Dennis Levine, one of our affiliates would say. The statistics above prove that point.
The big challenge a retailer faces every season is finding the right lines and items that their customers will be motivated to buy. If 20% of the people are not motivated to spend $18 on their own health and well being even if they believe it could be in jeopardy, and another 40% are not motivated by what many would argue are the obvious facts, the ability to motivate customers to buy the merchandise they pick is an enormous task. Fortunately the buyer usually has some great sales people to close the deal but that hardly absolves the buyer of significant responsibility for success.
The research that a buyer must do to accurately and profitably invest the company’s funds and make a profit is daunting. The two aspects of knowledge with which every buyer must enter the market are what will the customer buy and how much will he buy. Even the government only needed to predict demand in ordering flu vaccines!
Merchandise planning always begins with accurate forecasts of demand for each classification of merchandise in the store. Sales will happen when that demand is met with desirable merchandise and an effective sales force. Once you know the demand (or, with the government example, how many people will want the flu shot) you can then determine how much inventory you have, how much of it is effective, how much additional inventory you will need and what you can spend on it. That gives your OTB budget.
The buyer must then be adept at assortment planning. This is where a good POS system can help document the lines, sku’s , colors and fashions that have been selling. Just like your stock broker tells you, “Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future sales!”, a good buyer must be on top of the market, fashions and trends. That means hanging out where your customers hang out and watching what people are wearing. Predicting the next trend is always a gamble but understanding your customers taste levels is a necessity.
I guess a buyer that gets the best merchandise planning along with OTB information and does the best trend analysis and assortment planning should be able to satisfy as much as 40% of his market. After all, that is the portion of the market that is motivated to get a simple shot to prevent a life threatening disease from attacking his body. That really makes it clear how little room retailers have for error in the current retail market and how important getting the right information on which to base decisions will be.