Specialty Retail Blog

By Evan Wise

Most stores have customers who shop for the newest items and the latest fashion. The store buyer, in selecting the merchandise, needs to keep not only that in mind, but also must be attentive to achieving targeted margin and GMROI goals. Accomplishing that requires a strategy and discipline to be effective.

At the beginning of the season, the buyer must start with an Open To Buy budget to use as a guide for purchases. The budget can be stretched by holding some back to buy off price items as well as potential re-orders, during the season. That is where strategy enters. Planning how much to withhold at the beginning of the season can be a critical decision for the success of the entire season. Adjustments during the season are important but require a view of cash flow and OTB in making those changes. Often the strategy leads to effective negotiations at markets and during initial buys to assure the ability to get the best goods off price during the season.

Buying off price in season is challenging as well. Price should not be the only attraction. An off price buy that cuts into the store’s ability to sell its regular price merchandise can be counter- productive. The buyer should analyze if the merchandise fits the customers’ tastes and the store’s assortment plan. The buyer should determine if the purchase is something that would have been made at full price at the beginning of the season. Just because the price is low does not mean it is a good buy. It needs to sell. An added benefit to the purchase would be if the item drives sales of the other regularly priced merchandise. A good question to also ask is “Can the goods be brought into the store at the full price before issuing the markdowns?”

A further question is what do I do as the season progresses? Have my sell-throughs been weaker than expected and do I already own my own markdowns? Will an off price buy help my margins offset an erosion in my margins or be a potential drain on cash flow? Should I take the hit on my own goods and move on to the next season?

An additional strategy is to blend both regular goods and to sprinkle buys in from the Management One® Buying Service (MBS –exclusive to M1 clients) or to buy more opportunistically as you develop your assortment strategies.

There are a lot of variables to consider as you look to build your merchandise plan for the season.

Everything in retail becomes more complicated and interconnected as you continue to grow your business. The more guidelines that can be established, the easier and more profitable the journey becomes!

A lot of our clients ask us about taking on consignment goods.  At first,
this seems like a dream come true – you get goods in the store that you
don’t have to pay for until they sell.  And if they don’t sell, you just
send them back.  Great, right?  Well, maybe…

There are a few definite downsides to consignment goods that retailers
should be aware of:

• Sure, you can send the goods back, but that means you are paying double freight for stuff that didn’t sell.

• What is the cost to you to have your staff (or yourself) pack up these goods?

• What about accounting?  This definitely adds time to any accounting that you do to keep your books straight (not to mention your POS system!)

• Moving goods in and out this way can confuse your customer. A retail store has no better marketing than having the right goods at the right time.

We do recommend consigment goods when you are learning about a new line that is untested, or if you are having very difficult cash flow scenarios.  Of
course, difficult cash flow scenarios typically come from either buying too much inventory in the wrong classifications, or too much inventory in
general, and that’s what solid open to buy planning prevents (OK, a not-so-subtle hint, but I do believe in that strongly, so I had to stick that in there.)

The recession isn’t over yet, so these kinds of issues must be carefully studied to ensure positive cash flow and success.

Dan Jablons
Retail Smart Guys
www.retailsmartguys.com

Retailers may have some very helpful allies in places they would least expect to find them.

This article seeks to highlight some useful, but typically ignored synergies between science, engineering, business and retail. Karl Popper elegantly described the purpose of science as a process which generates predictive theories.  Science, economics and all kinds of business applications rest critically upon a common need; the need to accurately forecast a complex and dynamic future.

While the goals of science, economics and business are worlds apart, the actual process of forecasting is common to each. Similar challenges in forcasting allow lessons learned in one discipline to be applied in another.

Here, we’ll look at what forecasting insights can be gleaned from raindrops and market drops to help make our retail profits a little more stratospheric.

The most basic, even instinctive, method of forecasting involves guessing what will happen. Humans naturally learn to link certain events together. A midwestern corn farmer might say “knee high by the fourth of July.” If the crop isn’t tall enough by the given date, the farmer knows in advance that the crop has gotten a bad start and will therefore yield a weak harvest. Other times, the process is more intuitive, what we call “gut instinct.’ A person might “have a bad feeling” about some situation, even if he’s unable to explain the rationale behind it to another person. Recognizing patterns is something people do without even trying. It’s nearly impossible to look at a word written on a page, for instance, and not “read” it.

Of course, this kind of guessing is one of all kinds of human flaws and limitations. It lacks the dispassionate rigor of an actual scientific experiment. Just knowing that the crop isn’t high enough tells a person nothing about what caused its short stature. Even worse, it offers no clues to fix the problem. Gut instinct is difficult to transfer from one person to another. It creates dependence on a person, rather than a process and it’s horribly subject to the constraints of a single person’s memory and intellect. Using only gut instinct is better than nothing, but even at it’s best it is imprecise and prone to error. Stock outs sometimes and markdowns others is the result.

Of course, some of these problems can be solved by using past trends and performance to predict future results.

This approach is a little more precise and predictive if the system varies the same way it has done in the past. We’re no longer relying on the feelings of one individual and emotions are checked somewhat by stubborn little numbers. But it’s still less than ideal.

The professionals that spoke on climate research at a talk I attended recently amazingly faced the same problems that we faced in trying to predict future sales and performance for retailers. They started, as we did, using statistics.  Statistics and trends are useful in a somewhat stable or controlled environment. In statistical terms its changes can be depicted by a bell shaped curve or some other known distribution.   When climate change was affected by increasing CO2 the statistics based on the past could no longer predict the future.  Retail , also, is a constantly changing environment. When the recession hit, trends based on past performance were completely invalid.

The solution the climatologists brought to bear to help understand our dynamically changing environment was to make mathematical models of how the system worked. Over the years the model for climate change was modified to include surface temperatures, then atmospheric makeup including CO2, methane, and other gasses. Moisture content, then ocean temperatures were added. Then solar radiation coming in and out was added and so on. As each new variable was added to the model, a more accurate prediction was possible.  The true test was to back test to see if the model predicted what happened in the past. The final test is to see how accurately it predicts what happens in our actual, uncertain future.

We went through similar trials and tribulations to develop our Winning@Retail™ software. It contains both analysis of past performance using statistics and mathematical models  that account for the effects of the economy, local buying habits, inventory levels and much more to get an accurate prediction of future sales.  With each new variable added to the model the predictions improved.  Several independent tests have measured our ability to predict sales at 94% or better.

Just as knowing the future of climate change can help us prepare for the coming challenges, knowing future sales allows us to identify the right inventory levels and predict cash flow in the business.  If we don’t like the outcome, we can use the models to chart a new course based on a solid forecast of coming trends. Rather than just seeing a bad crop coming several months ahead of the harvest, we can consider how to nourish a business so that it continues to be fruitful and productive. The use of predictive models is the best approach to inventory planning.  POS systems and many spreadsheet approaches use statistics to project the past into the future.  Their susceptibility to sudden shocks and changes causes waste, errors and inefficiency, often when they are most painful.  The better your data and analysis, the better the predictions and the better the results will be.

A good article on optimizing turnover rates by M1 Affiliate Alan Roseman

Everywhere you look today you see retailers scrambling to turn excess
inventory into cash through heavy markdowns.  The definition of a  recession
is where there is an excess of capacity, inventory and labor in the
marketplace.  The danger for retailers, as it is with other businesses, is
slashing inventory, staff, marketing etc. without a plan. That uncontrolled
strategy will leave them struggling at best and without a business for many.

Retailers need three strategies now instead of just one. Strategy one is
the short term strategy that depends on an accurate sales forecast so you
can adjust the stock to sales ratio down to the new sales level.  Blowing
out merchandise through heavy markdows below that level will starve the
business of needed cash to buy into profitable sales later.

iA midterm strategy will guide buyers into the right levels of merchandise
to buy into as well as the right expense structure to retain in order to
maintain profitable business. There are many aspects to consider in this
crucial period. Negotiating tactics, the Margin Buying Service to provide a
greater margin, aggressive approaches to fixed expenses, aggressive
marketing and customer relationship management as well as a different
mindset for the entire staff are some of the considerations that are
important for success in this midterm approach.  Many shoppers are taking a
hiatus on shopping during this period of chaos and they will come back so
you must be ready.

The final strategy is the long term strategy that will grow your business to
new levels of profitability.  As many as 25% of the retailers will not
survive to join in this process but those that do stand to grow the business
to new levels.  Making that happen requires strategic planning, guidance
based on data and analysis and a team decision process that involves buyers,
sales, an accurate plan and an implementation process to make it work.

Your affiliate will be providing a break even analysis and plans that
reflect changes that serve as the foundation to this process.  Following
that plan is more important now than ever before.

Our Winning@Marketing team has been operating for 4 months now and working with these marketing experts has given me some real insights into many changes occurring all around us. I remember 45 years ago as a kid in my dad’s men’s store, most marketing was word of mouth and a weekly ad in the local paper. The strategy was to open a store, have merchandise available, put an ad in the local paper and wait on customers when they came in the shop. The world has turned upside down since then. Let’s look at a few of the changes that have affected or soon will affect your business future.

Advertising – THEN: Advertising used to be lofty claims and expensive fluff – jingles, sound bites or tag lines. NOW: Today information speaks to individuals. Successful businesses have a presence on the web. They engage in more cost effective marketing targeted to buyer personas and customized for their benefit. Blogs, article marketing, SEO, SEM and e-mail campaigns are replacing or at least augmenting traditional media advertising.

Promotion/Message Delivery – THEN: Retailers broadcasted their message by either advertisements in the newspaper or on radio or TV. Potential customers would see it, some of them would react and come into the store. NOW: With customers searching for everything on the internet, the broadcast has changed. It’s now the customers who broadcast what they want by searching the web, and it’s up to the retailers to “be there” when they are searching.

Wait on customers – THEN: People had limited choices and you knew your market and the competition. You got to know customers and you did not need a great effort to get them to come in; they came in anyway. Competition increased and businesses turned to direct mail and phone calls. NOW: Marketing is more about getting to know your customers than ever before. Getting to know them means what they do, what they like and who they really are. When they like you, they like your merchandise and like the buying process, they are loyal. People still buy from people who they like!

Hype – THEN: Marketing was about creating an external perception that was nirvana. “Drink our beer and the girls will flock to you!” “We offer the best service at the best price!” People have either become a lot smarter or are receiving a lot more choices. These ads don’t work. NOW: Reality matters. Teamwork and excellence are fundamental to your reputation and growing a business. Leadership needs to inspire staff and give direction. It’s all about what happens at the EAI (Employee Action Interface). When your marketing is about the truth, it creates buzz, word of mouth, loyalty and passion. The truth needs to be about creating partners of your customers and providing support as well as product.

Markdowns – THEN: Inventory that didn’t sell went on sale. What still remained was stored for next year. After three years if it didn’t sell, it went to the sidewalk sale. The bottom of the funnel was a charitable donation. NOW: Rising prices, expenses, competition and the internet have all put pressure on cash flow. Cash flow relies on not only buying the right goods but also the right amount. Measures and control of margins, maintained markup and sell through are critical. Budgeting, classification structure, inventory management and merchandise planning are fundamental to success today. Information, analysis and the right actions are no longer hallmarks of the best retailers, they are hallmarks of the survivors.

There are many other changes happening with the economy getting tougher every week. Winners will be the ones who move the market from people who shop with you to people who are passionate about your store. Winning@Business™ gets your team focused and effective, Winning@Retail™ increases cash flow and profits and Winning@Marketing™ drives new prospects to your door. Call Management One® to find out which processes work best for your business.