The most successful retailers focus on the fundamentals and not the excuses that surround us. If you can’t control it then it is likely an excuse. One very controllable and important aspect of your business is the turn rate of your merchandise. In fact, the best indicator of retail success is GMROI and Turn. This article will focus on turn. In order to make sure clients were comfortable with the importance of turn rates, James Hallman, Management One retail consultant in Atlanta developed this explanation for his clients.
“A few folks have mentioned that they still get a little confused with merchandising terms like “inventory turns”, etc., and exactly how it affects profit in the business. The purpose of this story is to try to explain inventory turnover in an entertaining and enlightening way.
It’s enough to drive you BANANAS!
The phrase “going bananas” means that someone is “very frustrated”, or maybe even “gone crazy”. I don’t know how bananas got hung with such a rap as this, but let’s use this humble fruit to de-fuse some of the confusion on this whole issue of “inventory turn”
Bananas are an interesting fruit- they come in their own zip-lock covers, and they are good for you. I personally love to eat bananas. So do a lot of other people. So, to better understand what inventory turn means, and also to help answer the question of “What does turn mean to me?” let’s go into the banana business together…
Let’s say we own a little fruit stand, and from this fruit stand we sell bananas. We buy our banana stock from a local wholesale market. We pay 40 cents for each banana, and we sell it to our customers for $1.00. We sell, on average, 100 bananas per week (remember, it’s a small fruit stand).So, bright and early, each Monday morning, before our stand opens, we go to the wholesale market, show our ID cards to prove we are real-life retailers and have a right to buy at this wholesale market, and we buy our 100 bananas.
We pay $40 for these 100 bananas. Our inventory investment in these 100 bananas is $40. We work hard for six days, and by Saturday night, we have sold all of our bananas. We made a $60 profit on our $40 investment. We turned (bought and sold) our inventory of bananas one time that week. We take Sunday off- we deserve the rest!
Now, over coffee before going to market next Monday, we discuss how can we do more business? “Well,” you say, “almost every customer who comes by the stand to buy bananas asks me if we carry apples. I think we could sell some apples, if we had them.” I agree, since many of my customers also asked about apples.
We decide to do some high-tech market research. All the following week, whenever anyone asked us about apples, we put a hash mark on a sheet of paper. By doing this, we determined
we could sell at least 40 apples per week. We can get the apples for 50 cents each, and sell them for $1.00. We only have one problem. We don’t have an extra $20 to buy the 40 apples! We only have $60, and we need $40 of that to pay for our 100 bananas. All the meager profit we make each week goes to pay the rent on the fruit stand, and for us to live on.
We think about borrowing the extra $20 from your Mom, but you don’t want to ask her – and she doesn’t like me at all! Oh, what can we do?
“Eureka!”, you exclaim. “I know what we can do! This Monday morning, we’ll go to the market as usual, but instead of buying 100 bananas, we’ll only buy 50 bananas. With the $20 we save, we’ll buy our week’s supply of apples!”
“But if we only buy 50 bananas, we’ll run out of bananas”, I note.
“Not really”, you say, “because we’ll make an extra trip to the market Thursday morning, and with the money we made from selling all 50 bananas and half the apples the first half of the week, we’ll buy the other 50 bananas we’ll need for the second half of the week”.
So, that’s what we do, and of course, here is what happened: Rather than investing $40 once per week to sell the 100 bananas which brings us a $60 profit, we invest only $20 to buy 50 bananas, we sell those for a $30 profit, get our original $20 back, and then re-invest $20 of it in another 50 bananas which we sell the other half of the week.
Now, we are making the same $60 banana profit on a $20 investment because we buy 1/2 the bananas twice as often during the week. With the other $20, we buy our week’s supply of apples. By selling the apples, we make another $20 profit. So now, our same $40 invested in fruit is returning us a profit each week of $80, rather than $60.
That is what inventory turn is all about: buying, selling, and rebuying the inventory more often during the same time frame. And, it won’t take us long to realize that we don’t really need to buy our entire week’s supply of apples all at one time, either. After all, some customers have been asking about oranges…
Note: To improve your fruit stand’s inventory turn, it is vital, even critical, that you know how many bananas you can sell per week and apples, and maybe even oranges.. Of course you need to know the balance and flow of the inventory since some people that bought bananas may now buy apples INSTEAD of bananas. Apples are not in season all year long so the price fluctuates as does the availability and demand for each fruit. That is where sales forecasting and inventory planning comes in…
This parable helps us understand why merchandise planning is at the heart of retail success. In our fruit stand we minimized our investment and maximized our return. This is not only critical to a retailer, it is obvious. The problem is that achieving that depends on understanding many important factors. Let’s review a few:
The demand forecast for each classification must be accurately determined. That means that we know how sensitive the demand is to price. If we raised the price of our bananas, what would that do to the revenue we earn on bananas? If the increased IMU does not decrease demand, we now are making more profit. If the demand drops so the margin drops, the IMU was too high. When we know the demand curve we can maximize the profit or margin on that classification by applying the right IMU. We must know that to determine the right balance and flow to the inventory plan.
In our fruit stand, the improvement worked because we had goods available every day. In a retail store, that is not the case. That means that the order cycle and delivery flow must match both the demand for merchandise from the customer AND the demand for payments from the factors and vendors. Imagine what happens to our ability to buy new bananas if we bought 100 last week and only sold 80 of them. Since no one wants brown bananas, we need to take markdowns to get rid of them. The more extra bananas we bought, the more the markdowns will kill our profits. Now imagine the complexity in your business of projecting the flow of inventory months ahead of time. The need for accurate planning and implementation of the plan is critical.
The bottom line is that success starts with an accurate sales forecast. There are many methods to develop a forecast.
A successful fruit stand depends on a fast turn of merchandise. Your retail success depends on turn too. Turn is controlled by sales and by inventory. A merchandise plan is only as good as the sales forecast. The better the forecast, the better the turn. Bank on it.